Baseball offers enough data that creates a side hustle of pro-bono analysts and websites, like FanGraphs, moving the game from the flat screen to the spreadsheet. But sometimes, like a Thai chili-cardamom infused craft beer, a watered-down Coors Light is better. [1]
Last season, hitters topped 97.5 mph launch speeds (barreled balls) over 9,000 times. [2] Pitchers Mike Leake, Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgarner, and Merrill Kelly had the unfortunate distinction of allowing the most barreled balls last season. [3]
On paper, a pitcher’s release speed doesn’t have much effect on the number of barreled balls (0.014 correlation).
| Launch Speed (mph) | Hit Distance (feet) | Release Spin Rate
(rpm) |
| 97.5-99 | 376 | 2253 |
| 99-105.5 | 393 | 2264 |
| 105.5+ | 403 | 2248 |
And the numbers above support this claim. Lower release spin rates, a by-product of fastball usage, tend to only slightly boost barreled balls compared to “softer” pitches like curve balls and changeups.
Figure 1: Miguel Sano averaged a 94.4 mph exit velocity off his bat during 2019, second only to Aaron Judge.
As shown below, pitches in the center of the strike zone appear to be hit harder than those that land on the outer edges. But like a Basquiat painting, it’s hard to tell for sure from the below visual.
Figure 2: Exit velocity (mph) based on pitch f/x location.
The hardest hit balls (105.5+ mph) tend to occur when pitchers fall behind in the count.
| Exit Velocity
(mph) |
Balls | Strikes |
| 97.5 -99 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| 99-105.5 | 1.21 | 0.99 |
| 105.5+ | 1.22 | 0.89 |
Bumgarner was at his peak in July and August in terms of limiting exit velocity. But there is a definite spike in hard hit balls a bit later into the season perhaps from arm fatigue? ****
Figure 3: Timeline showing the outings when Bumgarner allowed two or more barreled balls (97.5+ mph off exit velocity) during 2019.
Let’s be clear. If you look below, pitchers like Patrick Corbin, Shane Bieber, and of course Bumgarner were very durable in 2019. They are on this list largely because they threw more pitches than most other starters-a testament to their skill and durability.
Figure 4: Average starts between allowing at least one barreled ball in 2019.
Other pitchers like Ivan Nova and Jorge Lopez not only allowed a high number of barreled balls but also had FIPs nearing or topping 5.00. [5] But even they serve a purpose, acting as inning eaters, which saves arms in the long run, especially during the long-humid of the midwest.
[1] In the 1970s and 1980s, Coors Light was considered a “lite luxury” beer on the East Coast because it was only sold West of the Mississippi. It was known that “bootleggers from New Jersey to Tennessee regularly sell cases of Coors as much as $15-about three times the Colorado retail price.”
So, you might see a 12-pack of Coors Light next to Dom Perignon at Miami’s notorious Hotel Scarface in the 1980s.
[2] The velocity of the baseball after the hitter makes contact.
[3] Bumgarner should not be judged on allowing a high number of barreled balls. He was an extremely durable starter with a 3.90 FIP and 8.80 K/9 over 207.2 innings in 2019.
[4] Not really. His four-seam velocity was a touch above 91 mph over July, August, and September. But his slugging percentage against spiked from 0.314 in August to 0.609 in September.
[5] Fielding independent pitching.
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